STORM UPDATE

Last Updated

A quick review.  This has been an interesting storm.  As far as QPF predictions went, the NAM was superior to the GFS,  both with the previous snowfall Sunday night and with last night’s light accumulation.   We didn’t get the 0.35 inches of water forecast by the GFS last night.

Another bias this storm seemed to confirm:  the “off-hour” runs of the GFS and the NAM, (the model runs done at 1AM and 1PM eastern time),  should really be ignored.  They often complicate rather than clarify the forecast.    Some of the back and forth with the forecast could have been avoided by ignoring the off hour models.

The new National Blend of Models  (NBM) also did well, especially with forecasting precipitation type- snow vs sleet vs rain.  (PTYPE).

In my neck of the woods, we had less than 1 inch of mixed precipitation accumulate.  There’s a mix of light snow, rain and a bit of ice pellets right now and that should transition to sleet and rain by about noon.    Temperatures remain near 30 and below just outside of the city and should rise above 32 mid day.

The latest NBM shows a transition to all rain about noon to 1 PM here. (gridpoint- Blue Bell).  Later transition will occur further north and west.

Rain, heavy at times,  continues until after midnight tonight.