This afternoon’s GFS and NAM have maintained a low QPF of less than 0.10 inches water in the immediate PHL area and south. Under ideal conditions, we would have about an inch or so of snow. HOWEVER, the surface temperatures have been above freezing today and won’t drop below 32 until 4 AM. While the heaviest QPF is expected between 4 and 7 AM, the warm surface temps will likely cut into accumulations.
So…still going with about 1 inch of snow in the immediate PHL area an adjacent suburbs. Area north and west (Doylestown, Allentown) may have closer to 3 inches. Again, a difficult forecast, since warmer surface temperatures will be reducing accumulations.
Whatever falls, there is agreement that temperatures drop below freezing for the morning rush hour. So icy conditions will be an issue.
Tonight’s NAM data first becomes available about 9 PM or so. I’ll update then.