POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATE EVENING

Tue 05:40 PM Update — The most recent run of the HRRR model has the storms falling apart before reaching us. So tonight’s storms are not a sure thing. It’s becoming clear why there was such a wide range of model forecasts.

An upper air disturbance moves through this evening, between 10 PM and 2AM.

Yesterday’s models picked up on this, but had the storms affecting the far western suburbs and falling apart as they entered the immediate PHL area.  This morning’s NAM-NEST continued to have the storms falling apart, while the HIRESW model had them affecting PHL.

This afternoons’s models have been on-board with more of the PHL  getting some scattered heavy thunderstorms.  Not all areas will see these storms, but this afternoon’s models just becoming available show some isolated areas of heavy rain and even some hail possible.  The storms will be fast moving.

 

Here’s the HRRR model simulated Radar forecast at 11 PM with storm motion streamlines—

(The location of the storms in simulated radar forecasts can’t be taken literally. It’s just a model.)

HRRR (17z) Simulated Radar and storm motion at 11 PM  (Click on image for a larger view.)