Posted Saturday 10/12/24 @ 10:48 AM — Cancel those showers for Sunday night. Both the GFS and ECMWF now show less of an upper trough and weaker low pressure development. The very dry weather to continue.
Originally Posted Fri 5:36 PM —With a high pressure ridge and upper air trough seemingly unchanging in previous models runs, I’ve been taking a break from forecasts for the past two days. However, weather being what it is, things have changed and it seems there may actually be a chance for some rain late Sunday or Sunday night.
NAEFS forecast for Sunday at 11 PM Upper jet stream trough spawns low pressure over PA (Click on image for a larger view.)
We’re expected to be under the influence of an upper trough by Sunday and low pressure is expected to develop right over western Pennsylvania by Sunday evening.
While we’re still not located in the most favorable position for rain relative to the jet flow, the latest GFS is cranking out some rain Sunday night! Not a lot, about 1/4 of an inch, but we’ll take anything we can get.
10-11-24 12z GFS forecast for 2 AM Sunday. Low pressure with an area of rain. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Saturday Forecast
Sunny and quite nice. Some high thin cloudiness moves in late afternoon.
NBM high temperatures: Blue Bell, PA 74 º Philadelphia, PA 76º Uncertainty (based on standard deviation): High confidence
Sunday Forecast
Considerable cloudiness far northern suburbs, mostly sunny closer to the city. Increasing cloudiness late afternoon. Cloud cover will affect high temperatures reached.
NBM high temperatures: Blue Bell, PA 77º Philadelphia, PA 79º, maybe 80º Uncertainty (based on standard deviation): slightly below average confidence.
Posted Wednesday 10/09/24 @ 4:31 PM —The latest models are suggesting Milton will make landfall between 11 PM and midnight, just south of Tampa Bay, possibly closer to Sarasota—
12z HAFS B wind/pressure forecast for 11 PM tonight. Landfall between Sarasota and Tampa Bay. (Click on image for a larger view.)
There remains uncertainty in the exact location of landfall. Here’s a few models—
Milton Landfall – various models (Click on image for a larger view.)
Hurricane Milton Update
Posted Wednesday 10/09/24 @ 9:55 AM —Both the latest ECMWF AI model and NOAA’s newest hurricane model, the HAFS B, has Hurricane Milton making landfall between 10 PM and midnight south of Tampa Bay, closer to Sarasota—
The latest HAFS B model wind/pressure forecast for ~10 PM tonight (Click on image for a larger view.)
Here’s the ECMWF-AIFS has been consistent with this landfall location—
06z ECMWF-AIFS wind/pressure forecast for ~ 10 PM tonight (Click on image for a larger view.)
The hurricane intensity models all have Milton downgrading to a Category 3 before it makes landfall.
A landfall south of Tampa Bay may be better for the Bay area as wind flow will be westward instead of eastward in that region. It will be worse for Naples, Venice, etc.
Hurricane Milton Update
Posted Tuesday 10/08/24 @ 4:27 PM — The latest ECMWF has delayed Milton’s landfall until 7 AM Thursday morning, closer to Sarasota. The AI version is similar—
12z ECMWF Milton landfall around 7 AM Thursday morning just north of Saratoga (Click on image for a larger view.)
NOAA’s newest hurricane model, the HAFS B has an earlier landfall further north near Tampa Bay—
12z HAFS B forecast for midnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Posted Tuesday 10/08/24 @ 3:00 PM — Today’s models have trended towards a somewhat later landfall for Milton, sometime in the early morning hours of Thursday.
Here’s NOAA’s high resolution Hurricane model, the HWRF, one of several NOAA hurricane-specific models—
Todays 12z HWRF model wind speed and surface pressure forecast at 5 AM. Notice the northward track of this model. with landfall north of Clearwater. (Click on image for a larger view.)
There’s still a range of landfall predictions and there’s no reason to believe this is the correct one.
Posted Tuesday 10/08/24 @ 10:41 AM — The latest ECMWF-AIFS model shows Hurricane Milton reaching landfall just before midnight Wednesday into Thursday near Sarasota. This AI model has been extremely consistent in forecasting this storm and consistent about its track.
10-08-24 06z ECMWF-AIFS forecast for Thursday at 12:01 AM. Rainfall shading (Click on image for a larger view.)
In contrast, the GFS is slightly north, directly entering Tampa Bay—
10-08-24 06z GFS Winds at 12:28 AM Thursday. Slightly north of the ECMWF-AIFS, forecast track, entering Tampa Bay. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Hurricane Milton Update
Posted Monday 10/07/24 @ 5:20 PM —The latest ECMWF-AIFS has become available. I’m leaning towards this model because it was the first to forecast this hurricane over a week ago and it did quite well with forecasting Helene’s track.
The latest ECMWF-AIFS takes the storm just north of Sarasota about 10 PM to midnight Wednesday—
10-07-24 12z ECMWF-AIFS forecast for 10 PM Wednesday evening. Shading is rainfall rate. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Note that our GFS model is significantly further north with Milton’s landfall and is somewhat slower, making landfall about 2 AM Thursday—
10-07-24 12z GFS has a track further north and somewhat slower, reaching landfall north of Clearwater at 2 AM Thursday. (Click on image for a larger view.)
The operational version of the ECMWF is closer to the GFS than it’s own AI version.
Just an acknowledgement that this is a dynamic situation, no single model should be relied upon and the official information from the National Hurricane Center should be utilized.
Quiet Here Weather-wise. And then there’s Milton
If I had some time off as a meteorologist in the northeast, this week would be a great time to take an extended vacation.
Fair weather and no significant rainfall for our area for at least a week!
A very amplified high pressure ridge will fill the central and western US while the northeast will be under the influence of an upper trough—
Monday morning Water Vapor image with superimposed RAP model parameters. Upper trough over our area, strong blocking ridge over the central and western US. Hurricane Milton visible. (Click on image for a larger view.)
By Wednesday, the upper low closes off to our northeast and nothing but dry high pressure is available to affect our weather—
NAEFS forecast for Wednesday at 2 PM. Large ridge and high pressure to affect our weather. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Hurricane Milton
The ECMWF AIFS had successfully predicted the formation and likely track of what is now known as Hurricane Milton well over a week ago. It did this long before the regular models showed any specific development. It also was very successful with the general track of Helene.
The ECMWF-AIFS latest run shows the following possible landfall between 8 PM Wednesday and 1 AM Thursday—
10-07-24 06z ECMWF-AIFS forecast for Hurricane Milton at 8 PM. Milton shows signs of weakening somewhat as it approaches south of Tampa Bay. (Click on image for a larger view.)
