High pressure is expected to suppress a weak area of low pressure to our south. The models consistently keep both the clouds and precipitation in Virginia. It’s a close call, but the weekend weather should be beautiful if the models get this right.
Both Saturday and Sunday should be sunny with temperatures near 90 87 both days. Dew points in the low 60s will make it feel like July.
The models have scaled back the precipitation for PHL considerably, since yesterday. Most of the precipitation is shearing off to our far north and west this morning.
This morning’s NAM model just became available and it has light showers possible during the afternoon with a QPF of about 0.20 inches. (But with the current trends, who knows if we’ll even get that much.) Still lower than average confidence in this forecast.
Not a wash out by any means today- cloudy, cool for July 4th. Some scattered showers. Just clouds tonight and no rain for the fireworks.
Better weather returns Sunday- sunny with highs upper 70s to near 80.
The short answer is “probably possibly yes”.
This morning’s NAM and GFS models had a wide difference of opinions, with the NAM shearing the low pressure system with only a 35% chance of rain and the GFS had a more developed low with an 85% chance of rain. (The last time I saw this divergence, we had that “fizzled” snowstorm in February that made the weathercasters look bad.)
This afternoon’s run of the NAM has returned to a rainier scenario. So Saturday looks cloudy with showers likely in the morning and mid-day. Temps will be cool , in the low 70s. The positive view is that any rain we get will likely be over in the early evening, in time for the fireworks.
With the divergence in model solutions, there is below average confidence in this forecast.
Updated 7 PM: The amount of precipitation predicted by the afternoon models continues to decrease around PHL. Any showers will likely end by mid afternoon. Still a low confidence situation.
Updated 10:30 PM: Tonight’s NAM still cranks out rain for Saturday, ending mid to late afternoon.