The Tropical Prediction Center has moved the expected track of hurricane Joaquin westward and has delayed the arrival of the storm (then expected to be a tropical storm) until Monday in our area.
The majority of the experimental tropical models, though, keep the track even more westward and southward, into the Carolinas and then Kentucky. Stay tuned.
The computer models continue to show the path of hurricane Joaquin to curve towards the eastern US coastline, with most models showing the storm entering the coastline anywhere from the Carolinas to Delaware and even one showing New Jersey.
Current experimental models estimate that Joaquin could be come a Category II storm, with some models showing Category III status.
The Navy NAVGEMS model, (formerly the NOGAPS) still has the storm taking a southern track around the North Carolina with much of the energy and rain missing our area. The latest GFS model has joined the NAVGEMS with this track. These things change; too early to hang one’s hat on this.
Regardless of the exact path, rain and wind associated with Joaquin will affect our PHL area sometime over the weekend.
Numerous tropical models show tropical storm Joaquin becoming a hurricane, possibly Category II, over the next day or so and many of those models suggest a track into the east coast, anywhere from the Carolinas to Delaware over the weekend.
In the past, my preferred model for hurricane paths was the Navy NOGAPS model, now called the NAVGEMS
The NAVGEMS has Joaquin hitting pretty far south, near South Carolina. Numerous experimental models show the path of Joaquin hitting the east coast further north.
The GFS model has the storm further intensifying at sea and hitting the east coast around Virginia over the weekend. Hurricanes are tough to forecast and their presence along the coast often affects the forecast accuracy of non-tropical systems in the regular daily forecasts.
This storm needs to be watched, since it beginning to appear that it will affect PHL in some way (heavy rain potential and winds) over the weekend.