Philadelphia Area Weather Forecasts

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND FORECAST

The Philadelphia area forecast for this weekend has clarified a bit more.

Saturday will start sunny; high dew points in the 60s and high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s will make it an appropriate start of the summer season.

Unfortunately, moisture will also move in as mid-level cloudiness between 2 and 4pm.  There’s a high chance of showers and thunderstorms between 4 and 6 pm and the showers will likely continue into the evening.

The stream of moisture,  instability and cloudiness  are firmly entrenched by Sunday.  The GFS maintains showers throughout Sunday BUT the NAM holds off most of the precipitation  until later in the afternoon Sunday.  So there’s uncertainty about timing of showers on Sunday. I’m betting on the NAM here at this time. Any showers will be heavy.  High 78.

[su_note note_color=”#d9f2da”]11pm update: Sunday possibly looking better in the afternoon as a backdoor cold front noses in from the northeast.[/su_note]

High pressure noses in Sunday afternoon 

Monday starts off cloudy, but expect some sun by late in the afternoon.

I’ll try to nail down the timing of the showers with updates.

Philadelphia Weather Outlook

MEMORIAL WEEKEND WEATHER OUTLOOK

[su_note note_color=”#d9f2da”]THURSDAY PM UPDATE: Today’s models continue with the increased likelihood of thunderstorms and showers Saturday afternoon.  The chance of showers and thunderstorm remain high Saturday night through all of Sunday.  Lower chances of showers on Monday.[/su_note]

Sometimes the best weather forecast is not to provide specifics, but rather, to indicate  when there’s too much uncertainty to make a confident forecast.

Such is the case this weekend where uncertainty about the movement of moisture from a tropical system will greatly affect our weather.

The current picture is that light showers will move in sometime Saturday afternoon and that there’s a chance of some rain or showers to persist through Sunday and possibly even through Monday.

Greatest chance of heavy rain is in Delaware and Maryland, less to our north.

There are major differences in the models but perhaps the only agreement is that this Memorial Day Weekend will not feature bright blue skies or overwhelming sunshine.

I’ll take a more definitive stance on Friday.

 

Weather… and Other Things 'Up in the Air'