The well-advertised rain storm for Saturday is upon on. Rain moves in around midnight and becomes heaviest during the morning hours on Saturday, then tapers during the afternoon hours. Depending upon the model, rainfalls of 1.25- 2.00 inches are likely, much of it falling before noon on Saturday. It will be very cool, with high temperatures about 52.
Rain ends Saturday evening.
For Sunday, a mix of sun and clouds is expected. The latest GFS has a fair amount of sunshine; the NAM has considerable cloudiness with a slight chance of brief shower late in the afternoon. Confidence in the sun-cloud mix is a bit lower than average for Sunday. High near 70.
Most years in May, we are treated to seeing Rose-breasted Grosbeaks at our feeders. This year, we saw a “non-breeding” male Grosbeak with a distinctive brown-black color to its feathers. It is still in “winter feathers”. This guy was doing gymnastics to get his seed which you can observe in the video.
Saturday 11:30 PM Update : the models over-predicted the showers today. Tonight’s models have some showers late morning into afternoon Sunday, as the main cold front moves through. High temp only 59.
Again, upper air lows and associated showers and clouds are often poorly modeled. A low confidence forecast .
The bright spots we’re having this morning were expected and predicted.
The models have more low level cloudiness moving back in by this afternoon, with an increase in areal coverage of spotty showers during late morning and afternoon.
Exact placement and timing of showers with an upper air low pressure system is nearly impossible to predict. Instability of the atmosphere is high and any breaks of sunshine become “self-destructive” with the cold pool of air present in the upper atmosphere interacting with the sun-warmed rising air from the damp ground surface.
