Upcoming Active Weather Pattern

The next week or two looks to have a very active weather pattern, probably the most active this winter.

Following the possibly heavy rain this Wednesday, the jet stream undergoes several deep amplifications with cold air diving south as moisture emerges from the Gulf of Mexico. The first such amplification on Friday allows the moisture to miss us, but subsequent cold outbreaks next week will result in some impressive storms.  It will be a roller coaster regarding temperatures.

Too early to tell if it will be snow, rain or a mix for each one but it will certainly get interesting.  Nothing looks like the “blizzard” we just had, but the storminess and temperature swings looks to be impressive.  Stay tuned.

Tuesday 8 pm update- The low pressure system this Friday still expected to just miss us, moving to our east.  One model has it grazing the jersey shore. A large coastal storm still possible Monday-Tuesday timeframe but timing and track has high variability with different models.  Much uncertainty here.

Deep upper air trough with very cold weather next week; we may hear the term “polar vortex”by the end of next week.

Philly Weekend Weather Forecast

This weekend will be much more tranquil than last.

A brief highly amplified upper air flow that is brought in by a deep low far offshore will bring cold weather for Friday, but by Saturday, the upper air trough will relax, allowing warm air to slowly move back into our area.

As is often the case, the warm air moves in aloft first, so a mix of clouds and sun are likely for Saturday.  High temps 38-43.

For Sunday, high temps are expected to approach 50, but again, some mid-level cloudiness will be likely with the warmer temperatures.

In the long range, a rain storm is likely for Wednesday, followed by very cold weather for the first weekend in February.

Philly Storm Update 2PM

A quick update-  The immediate PHL area, now in a relative dry slot area, will begin to have heavier snow move back in during the late afternoon hours, as wrap-around moisture moves in from the west.  The HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Update) model, an hourly short range model,  has accurately captured this dry slot and shows the precipitation moves back in and finally ends in PHL about 7-9 PM.    But there’s still plenty of snow left to fall — as much as  4-6 inches more.

I’m not sure if we really qualified as having had a “blizzard”.  But that’s OK.

Weather… and other things "up in the air"