Last night’s GFS model continues to show considerable rain over our area Saturday before the surface low intensifies further off the coast Saturday night.
For Saturday, expect periods of rain especially mid day. Becoming increasingly windy. High 49.
For Sunday, the low pressure system will continue to affect us indirectly, with very windy conditions. Some sun in the morning will give way to instability cloudiness in the afternoon. High temperatures around 50.
The model forecasts for the sharp upper trough expected to develop late Friday into Saturday continue to change. Yesterday, the trough was expected to spawn two surface lows, both fairly far off the coast. The latest GFS shows a single deep coastal low develops closer to our area and brings more rain into our area on Saturday. The surface low will deepen and bring very windy conditions to our area Saturday.
Right now, temperatures are not going to be low enough have snow or snow showers as had been thought earlier in the week. But the trend is for windier conditions and more rain on Saturday.
It appears that the extreme cold that was expecteded to spawn low pressure directly over us will to stay over the Appalachians and our area will be indirectly affected by that initial upper air impulse. The secondary coastal low is now expected to form offshore, and both will be too far south and then too far east to directly affect us. There continues to be differences in the models regarding the amount of showers/snow flurries, but the trend has been that much, if not all, will miss us.
It will get colder and WINDY, but the chance of light snow showers here is looking slimmer and slimmer.
November blows in with a highly amplified trough and an embedded upper air disturbance that may bring snow showers around daybreak Saturday. No accumulation expected. Much uncertainty, but a cold and windy Saturday is expected.