A front slowly moving through Thursday will cause heavy rain to fall in the Philadelphia area. The latest NBM cranks out several inches of rain for our area, about 2.5 -4+ inches, with even some higher localized amounts! The heaviest rain north of the city.
Model Blend 5 PM accumulated Rain—
I’m going to be without weather model access for a few days, so there won’t be the usual sort of updates for this weather event tomorrow, nor will there be my regular weekend weather forecast.
It’s been a long time since we had an uneventful three day forecast, and it seems even longer that this occurred on a major holiday weekend.
The general pattern is one of high pressure building in from Canada, bringing clear skies and comfortable temperatures with low humidity.
The model blend (NBM) should be more than adequate for this forecast —
Sunny skies Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Highs 78°, 83° and 84°
This morning’s models just becoming available have a significant increase in the severity parameters- helicity, CAPE and vertical shear. Precipitable water values (PWAT) are very high.
So my previous post is off the mark.
Expect thunderstorms, 5-8 PM in the immediate Philadelphia area. Some could be severe.
