No model got this right today. And I look at all of them. The bow-echo that formed had been predicted to occur up near Allentown.
Radar 12:06 PM—
So how bad were the models?
Here’s the 10 AM HRRR model forecast for 12:00 PM, (two hours before the storms hit) —
Here’s the 11 AM HRRR model forecast for 12:00PM—
So even one hour before the storms hit, the high resolution model didn’t forecast this bow echo line of storms. Wow!