No model got this right today.  And I look at all of them. The bow-echo that formed had been predicted to occur up near Allentown.

Radar 12:06 PM—

 

So how bad were the models?

Here’s the 10 AM HRRR model forecast  for 12:00 PM, (two hours before the storms hit) —

 

Here’s the 11 AM HRRR model forecast for 12:00PM—

So even one hour before the storms hit, the high resolution model didn’t forecast this bow echo line of storms.  Wow!