Latest GFS model data in. Here is the trend. QPF values remain about the same at 0.65 inches water, and it has the precip heavy both in the morning and afternoon. Looks to be all snow.
Looking at the GFS and again at the at the NAM FOUS data, the temperature profile is trending colder.
A tough call-
I’m going back to my original forecast: 4, possibly 5 inches of snow on grassy surfaces in the immediate suburbs, less in the city. Less on roadways. Up to 6 inches in far northwestern suburbs. Precip ends about 10 pm
Latest NAM model data in. Here is the trend. QPF values remain about the same at 0.67 inches water, but the heaviest preciptation has shifted to the afternoon and lingers later into the evening.
With the heaviest precip occuring during the warmer afternoon hours, somewhat lower snow totals in the city and the the immediate suburbs. Two, possibly fourinches of snow on grassy surfaces in the immediate suburbs, less in the city. Less on roadways. Up to 6 inches in far northwestern suburbs. Some mixing with rain possible late afternoon. Precip ends about 9 pm
This snow will look worse from your window than it will really be. A messy day, weatherwise.
Latest afternoon model runs maintain the likelihood of snow starting around 8 AM and ending between 6 and 8 PM.
Here are the model trends: Both the NAM and GFS have a QPF of 0.65 inches water equivalent. The NAM (which did so well with the last storm) has trended colder, with the heavier precip in the afternoon. The GFS is still a bit warmer, but still supports snow.
4 inches (maybe 5) of snow just outside of the city is likely on grassy and shaded surfaces. Significantly less on dark asphalt roadways.
With the change to Daylight Savings Time, the next NAM data will become available after 10 PM with final data about 10:40 PM. The GFS early data doesn’t start rolling out until 11:25 PM DST. (That’s an hour later for us than winter forecasts on Eastern standard time.)
