A quick update-  The immediate PHL area, now in a relative dry slot area, will begin to have heavier snow move back in during the late afternoon hours, as wrap-around moisture moves in from the west.  The HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Update) model, an hourly short range model,  has accurately captured this dry slot and shows the precipitation moves back in and finally ends in PHL about 7-9 PM.    But there’s still plenty of snow left to fall — as much as  4-6 inches more.

I’m not sure if we really qualified as having had a “blizzard”.  But that’s OK.

Ok, I said I was done with the updates, but here’s another.

The latest NAM data shows a QPF of over 1 inch water from 7AM this morning through a bit after 10 PM this evening.   With temperatures so low in all levels of the atmosphere, expect a high snow-water ratio.

So whatever accumulation you had this morning, add about 15 or so inches to it.   That should bring it to about 25-30 inches in the PHL area.   Areas to the north, west and central NJ may get more than 30.

The heaviest snow will be between now and 1 or 2 PM.

10:45 AM – The latest GFS has 0.70 inches water falling as snow between 7 AM and midnight.

The wave expected to form Monday into Tuesday has developed earlier and is currently moving up the coast,  brushing our southern region with light snow.  The GFS still keeps this away from Philadelphia, but the modeling of this wave of low pressure has been anything but accurate.   I had mentioned that the model trends were closer to the coast, but this wave has formed earlier and much more westward.

The latest NAM has 0.07 inches water  (QPF) falling as light snow at PHL airport this afternoon.   This could be an inch of snow if it verifies.  This needs to be watched, since this wave of low pressure was not captured by the models even yesterday to hit us.