Category Archives: Weather Updates

SUNDAY UPDATE

[su_box title=”Weather Update 11 AM” box_color=”#defcdc” title_color=”#000000″]The latest NAM has a second slug of heavy rain moving in this evening, as an upper air disturbance (vorticity) slows exit of the surface low and enhances the precipitation.

There may be that taper in rain in the afternoon, but the NAM is forecasting heavy rain to return by 7-8 PM tonight.[/su_box]

From earlier this morning:

The latest short range models, the HRRR, RAP and NBH suggest that the main slug of rain tapers off today about 1- 2 PM with a break in the action until a second slug of precipitation arrives about 5 PM.  The HRRR even keeps that second slug of rain to our south.

The main GFS and NAM (2AM EDT runs)  keep the rain going into the evening.

WEEKEND WEATHER UPDATE

Today’s forecast went well and there’s little change in the forecast for Sunday.

The models are all on-board for rain on Sunday, with this afternoon’s GFS and NAM having a QPF of 2.5 and 1.5 inches water respectively.

Rain starts well before daybreak and is heavy at times, especially in the morning. The models have rain continuing through the day, tapering and ending as late as 6 or 7 pm.

FV3-GFS 3 hour precipitation forecast 11 am Sunday

Looking back, the FV3-GFS had the most consistently correct forecast for Sunday.