The NAM model was a bit off last night.  The thunderstorms that passed through last night were heavier than forecast; they also passed through somewhat earlier than forecast.

The clearing that was expected mid morning is  on its way, closer to 11 AM  in the city and later in NJ.   Instead of full sunny skies (as forecast by the GFS and NAM), it looks like Saturday will have a mix of sun and clouds in the afternoon.

More sun today than I expected based on the GFS model forecast yesterday. (The GFS model was updated by the NWS this past Wednesday.)

Clouds start moving in 2-3 PM.   Thunderstorms appearing likely as early as 5 PM and increasingly likely during the period from 5PM to 9 PM.

For Sunday,  much of the day rain-free, but thunderstorms again appear likely late afternoon into evening.

Last night’s NAM did very well in predicting the showers that formed to our south and moved through.

The cloudiness is keeping maximum temperatures below those originally forecast today.

Today’s NAM shows the possibility of more light showers moving through from the south about 5 PM today.   Sunday is looking mostly dry at this time.