Brief Update Sun 10 PM— The latest short-range high resolution models are just becoming available based on the most recent upper air measurements done at 8 PM EDT tonight.
Based on the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh), the highest wind gusts will be around 1PM Monday. Here is the latest —
00Z HRRR Wind Gust forecast for 1 PM Monday (click on image for larger view)HRRR Wind Pressure (click on image for larger view)
Gusts over 45 as early as 6AM.
Winds and wind gusts are difficult to forecast accurately, but I haven’t seen model numbers like this in a long time.
Revised at 10:35 AM: The latest models just becoming available. The NAM-NEST and HIRESW have significant clouds with widely scattered light drizzle through about 3 PM. Then skies begin to clear with some sunshine.
That’s the weird thing about model forecasts. Last night, the HIRESW models looked better about the cloud cover for today. But the NAM-NEST accurately predicted the light drizzle we’re having now.
Strangely, the NAM-NEST had predicted more sun and much less cloudiness.
1 AM model run- NAM NEST Forecast for 10AM Saturday showing light drizzle and clouds (white)
Last night, I combined the HIRESW models and the NAM-NEST, and I got rid of the drizzle in the forecast. It didn’t work out!
The new NAM-NEST and HIRESW models will be available about 10:15 and 10:30 AM. I’ll update after they become available.
