My previous post talked about the tremendous energy expected to converge over our area on Monday as two jet streams phase.  Tonight’s models just becoming available support the possibility of severe weather Monday.

I had to dust off my summer model download scripts for this forecast, as the model parameters that are of interest are the summer severe thunderstorm variety.

The latest HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) shows highly elevated severe weather parameters, especially Wind Shear, Helicity and CAPE (convective available potential energy) for November.

Two time periods are of interest tomorrow—  From 9-11 AM, extremely elevated Helicity is forecast (black shading)  High winds are likely during the 9-11 AM time period.—

From 3-5 PM, highly elevated CAPE (for November) is forecast with the possibility of severe thunderstorms with hail —

Be sure to listen to the NWS for last minute warnings.

A dip in the jet stream, will usher in a cold front late Tuesday into Wednesday.  Tonight’s models are suggesting the possibility of some heavy rain and imbedded thunderstorms, some could be impressive.

While available energy (CAPE) is on the moderate to low side, other severe weather parameters such as helicity and vertical wind shear are expected to become highly elevated after 10 PM Tuesday evening.  The possibility of thunderstorms with high wind gusts exists.

Heavy rain Tuesday night will reduce to showers that may linger into Wednesday afternoon.

Stay tuned.