Updated Thur 10:40 PM —Adding tonight’s  high resolution model (HIRESW-ARW MEM2) which has light showers 3 AM Saturday:

…earlier Thursday night—
So the Saturday coastal low forecast I’ve been watching this week has become a non-event, as the development is less organized than previously modeled and its track and speed keep it from affecting our area.  Here’s the latest GFS forecast for 6 AM Saturday—

It looks like we’ll have just clouds which may thin during the afternoon. High 48.

Sunday looks to have periods of clouds as well as some sun. High 50.

The models have been consistent in their forecast of heavy rain for Saturday.  The latest GFS model cranks out almost 1.8 inches of rain  right over us during the daytime hours, starting daybreak and ending early evening.  Mild with high temps in the 50s!

Here’s the latest PRATE (precipitation rate) forecast from the GFS—

(If a picture is worth a thousand words, a .GIF file is worth a bit more!)

Sunday looks to be sunny, but some upper air disturbance may bring some clouds in the afternoon.

Things still look quiet, snow-wise.  There’s a possibility next weekend, but the models aren’t all-in on this.

High pressure dominates the east coast today.  Despite the very cold temperatures yesterday and today, a moderating trend will develop by the end of the week.  This high pressure system over us will move off the coast, but it will be blocking any storms from affecting us through Friday.

This Saturday, a coastal low pressure  system is expected to develop around Delaware Bay Friday night and move slowly northeastward through the day Saturday as an upper air low catches up with the surface low. The models are in remarkable agreement about this system right now.

Ordinarily, this would be a snowstorm for us but not this time.  What’s lacking, unsurprisingly for this winter, is a cold high pressure system to the immediate northwest.

So Saturday will be rainy for most of the day, with QPF values near 1.00 inches water.

As the upper low moves into position, some cold air may be enough to provide some snow flurries late Saturday night, but temperatures are expected to remain above freezing.

Windy for Sunday!