As has been the case all winter (with the exception of the “blizzard”), the model forecasts beyond 4-5 days has been anything but consistent.
The models had been suggesting a deep surface low to develop Monday in the southeast and move up the coast. HOWEVER, the latest trend is for this track to be off-shore and miss us.
A new wrinkle in the forecast is a clipper-type system to move in later Monday from the northwest and undergo secondary cyclogenesis off the coast, possibly giving us snow later Monday. But these types of scenarios are the least predictable of all storms- they can often fizzle or development occurs too far north and east.
So, some snow is certainly possible in the Monday time frame, but it doesn’t appear to be the type of storm that is any more than a nuisance. Still very low confidence forecast.
One thing that seems consistent is an expected outbreak of very cold weather for next week, as the jet stream takes a deep dive. If that plays out, we’ll have our coldest weather of the winter next week which will dig as far south as Florida.
The next week or two looks to have a very active weather pattern, probably the most active this winter.
Following the possibly heavy rain this Wednesday, the jet stream undergoes several deep amplifications with cold air diving south as moisture emerges from the Gulf of Mexico. The first such amplification on Friday allows the moisture to miss us, but subsequent cold outbreaks next week will result in some impressive storms. It will be a roller coaster regarding temperatures.
Too early to tell if it will be snow, rain or a mix for each one but it will certainly get interesting. Nothing looks like the “blizzard” we just had, but the storminess and temperature swings looks to be impressive. Stay tuned.
Tuesday 8 pm update- The low pressure system this Friday still expected to just miss us, moving to our east. One model has it grazing the jersey shore. A large coastal storm still possible Monday-Tuesday timeframe but timing and track has high variability with different models. Much uncertainty here.
Deep upper air trough with very cold weather next week; we may hear the term “polar vortex”by the end of next week.
