The arctic airmass that will be moving in late Thursday has been well-advertised.

The models continue to hint at the possibility of some snow in the Sunday to Monday timeframe.  While the GFS has been unimpressive regarding cyclogenesis, the Navy NAVGEM and the Canadian models show low pressure developing along the frontal boundary. Still not great models consensus, but I’ve been watching this possibility for almost a week.  Stay tuned.

The latest model runs suggest that the arctic front that will move through Thursday will be associated with a less amplified jet stream than originally predicted.  That makes the likelihood of cyclogenesis less probable.

That said, some light snow is still a possibility Thursday afternoon.

Of greater interest is still the possibility of some  snow late Sunday, although the energy may split into a secondary low  too far north to truly affect us.  Still needs to be watched.

Tues PM:  There is now little indication of low pressure development along the frontal boundary for Sunday, but it wouldn’t take much for something to develop. An active pattern remains with us.