Last night’s two model runs continue to show some snow and mixed precipitation starting Monday night into Tuesday.  Current track is a bit further south, increasing chance of snow vs. rain, but QPFs are less.

We’re NOT talking about a major snowstorm for Philly; more likely a significant snow for areas much further inland.  Details about specific accumulations still uncertain, but it appears more like a 3 inch range total with sleet and possible rain mixed in for Philly.  The usually “more likely on grassy surfaces” instead of roadways.  That’s the current best guess.

What’s more significant with the latest model runs- the second low that forms on Wednesday is now looking like it might move out to sea, essentially missing us on Wednesday;  this is true of the deterministic models (GFS, CMC, ECMWF etc).   The statistical models still show a ”signal” for snow in our area on Wednesday, so we’re not out of the woods yet.

This is a complex binary-type system.  Still too early to be sure about  details, expeciallly with the second low for Wednesday.  Changes likely.

This morning’s models are in (an hour later due to Daylight Saving Time).   The development and track is just far enough east to minimally affect Philadelphia and its adjacent counties in Pennsylvania.   A bit more action in southeastern NJ where QPF’s are about 0.25 inches water, but warmer temperatures will impact accumulation.

[su_note note_color=”#ebf2d9″]At this time, expect just wet surfaces to just coating in most of our area. Freezing Monday night may make for some black ice situations in some areas on Tuesday morning. [/su_note]