A warm front moves through late Saturday, wth warm and very humid conditions returning Saturday night through Monday. A weak front tries to pass through late Sunday into Monday.
Not a very wet weekend but considerable cloudiness expected each day, especially Sunday afternoon.
Details still uncertain about timing and amounts of precipitation. Will try to pin it down tomorrow.
As mentioned in recent previous blog posts, there hasn’t been much continuity with forecast model runs over past weeks. What seems like a reasonable forecast two days in the future becomes an imaginary scenario as the day of the forecast approaches.
The same uncertainty is already manifesting itself with this coming Labor Day weekend’s forecast. Yesterday, the weekend looked like a washout. Today, a forecast of rain seems confined to this coming Sunday with the passage of a strong cold front with clearing likely for Monday.
So the forecast is really “up in the air” (where it belongs) for this weekend….there does appear to be a period that we will have rain, but hopefully just one of the three days.
I’ll update later this week.
My uncertainty last night with today’s forecast is manifest this morning, as we have an area of showers that is almost stationary and is oriented along the upper air jet flow vorticity at 300mb. This feature could be persistent today and the NAM model (often wrong lately) has been correct with this forecast so far. Indeed, the NAM predicts even heavier showers for the afternoon today.
Some areas today won’t see much if any rain, but if you’re currently getting some rain, this area of rain may be persistent and slow to move.
After a string of almost perfect weekend weather this summer, today’s less than stellar weather is nature’s way of moving things toward the mean.