Back to the weather! There hasn’t been much happening weather-wise around here. Beautiful and warmer weather has returned.
Unfortunately, I’m seeing a very dry, warmer-than-seasonal-average overall pattern developing this Spring, reminiscent of last year’s descent into a drought last Summer.
While rain is forecast for late Friday into Saturday, a pattern for the heaviest rain to move off to our northwest seems to be recurring. It’s really too soon to declare a hot, very dry, late Spring and Summer, but the current trend is moving in that direction and is disturbing.
Continued mild weather for the rest of the week. Showers move in late Friday afternoon or early evening with the system moving off to the northwest.
ECMWF-AI Single forecast for Friday at 8 PM The main system move off through the Great Lakes. (Click on image for a larger view.)
The AI models (at least those they release to the public) are low resolution in both spatial (0.25º resolution or about 21 km at this latitude ) and temporally (every 6 hours.) As a result, rain coverage on a weather map will look more impressive than what actually occurs.
Here’s the experimental RRFS-A forecast which has an hourly forecast and a 3 km spatial resolution. It’s forecast shows the much lighter rainfall—
04-23-25 06z RRFS-A forecast for Friday at 8 PM (Click on image for a larger view.)
Posted Friday 04/11/25 @ 1:49 PM —An upper closed low pressure system will bring rain and chilly conditions, as it keeps the surface low developing off the coast from exiting.
Rain Friday night into much of Saturday. Here’s the ECMWF-AI forecast for 2 PM Saturday—
ECMWF-AI forecast for 2 PM Saturday. The Blue L is the upper low which will sit directly over our area. Rain much of the day, tapering later in the day. (Click on image for a larger view.)
By Sunday, the upper low has moved off the coast but a cold pocket of air aloft (red thickness contours) will keep cloudy skies. A shower can’t be ruled out. An inch to two inches of rain is currently forecast.
ECMWF-AI forecast for 2 PM Sunday. Rain has for the most part stopped, but the red thickness lines indicate cold air aloft that will keep things fairly cloudy. (Click on image for a larger view.)
The ridge developing in the Central US will bring milder temperatures and better weather next week.
For a part of April, this blog’s weather updates will be less frequent than usual.
