Last night’s model runs have provided some much-needed clarity to the forecast for late Saturday into Monday.  Each model has previously gone through a series of forecasts which were in poor agreement with each other; last night’s model forecasts are in better agreement and perhaps closer to the likely reality.

Let’s cut to the chase — it appears that recent GFS and prior ECMWF model snow forecasts were very overdone.

A secondary low will form off the NJ coastline late Sunday and move northeastward, not lingering as previously forecast.  The more northern development of this coastal low will keep us in the warmer sector of the storm. Rain on Sunday will likely not change to accumulating snow, only a few snow flurries on Monday.  There’s still a chance that the precip starts as light snow before daybreak Sunday, but quickly changes to rain.

Additionally, it appears that precipitation will be slower to arrive.  Saturday should be dry for much of the day and evening. 

We’ll see if further model forecast changes occur. Stay tuned.