WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

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Posted Sunday 01/07 @ 10:11 AM —How much precipitation (water) did we receive (combined rainfall plus snow water equivalent)?

MRMS combined rain gauge & radar-based measurement of rainfall received. Color shading is in inches. Line contour numbers are in mm (25.4 mm= 1 inch) (Click on image for a larger view.)

With recent heavy rains and this recent past rainfall/snowfall, the concern exists for flooding with Tuesday night’s upcoming rain storm.

Sunday Forecast Update

Posted Sunday 01/07 @ 9:42 AM — Colder air has moved in aloft and some of the the precip is changing to snow flurries this morning. No further accumulation is expected.

There was a wide range of snow totals, fairly well-predicted by the model forecasts. The “official” snow totals for our region can be found here.

The storm is departing and clouds are expected to linger until early to mid afternoon. (In NJ, for the Eagles game, it will be cloudy with some light spotty rain and or snow showers possible.)

We should see some clearing skies here about 2-4 PM. High temps about 40-42º.

A major rain storm is forecast for Tuesday into Tuesday night with temperatures approaching 60º. With recent heavy rains and areas of snowfall, flooding is appearing quite likely.

NAEFS for Tuesday night—

01-07-24 06z NAEFS forecast for Tuesday at 10 PM. Very heavy rain (3 inches+) expected for our entire area. (Click on image for a larger view.)

Updates later.


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Weekend Storm Outlook

Previously Posted Fri 10:01 AM —

The development of this approaching storm system has been forecast by the models for almost two weeks and its general evolution so far hasn’t had many surprises. Despite being in a favorable location for heavy snow in our region (in colder ‘normal’ past winters), the lack of deep cold this winter will result in a mixed bag of precipitation types, now mostly rain. The latest model trend is for much less (or no) snow accumulation (see below).

Friday morning, the storm is currently just off the coast of Texas—

The precipitation will reach our area, from southwest to northeast, about noon to 2 PM, somewhat earlier in western Chester county. It will begin as light snow/flurries but will increase in intensity and mix with rain as early 3 PM in many locations that start as snow.

01-05-24 12z NBM Precipitation type at 3 PM. Many locations are all rain or a mix except north and west of the city. (Click on image for a larger view.)

By 10 PM, most areas are just receiving rain with temps in the mid to upper 30s—

01-05-24 12z NBM precip type/ conditional probability at 10 PM. (Click on image for a larger view.)

A change back to some wet snow will occur as some cold air aloft mixes back in as the low pressure depart early morning Sunday.

01-05-24 12z NBM forecast 7 AM Sunday. Mostly light rain, some wet snow mixed in. Temps above freezing here. (Click on image for a larger view.)

Light sprinkles, spotty showers and snow flurries persist until early afternoon. The Eagles will have mostly dry conditions, temps around 37º, not too windy, at game start.

Total snow accumulation forecast continue to diminish to zero in many areas—

Latest 01-05-24 12z HRRR shows virtually no snow for much of the immediate PHL area. (Click on image for a larger view.)