Hurricane Dorian is currently forecast to approach the eastern Florida coastline sometime Monday.  The  hurricane-specific models and their variants (and there are many of them)  have quite a spread  with the prediction of landfall locations but landfall somewhere around Cape Canaveral, Florida is currently forecast on Monday.

The model error-tracking done at the NCAR  (National Center for Atmospheric Research) in Colorado shows all models to have current errors in predicting the position of this storm of at least 50-60 miles over the past 24 hours. Errors in predicting the location of Dorian over the past 48 hours have been over a 100 miles off.   So accuracy is not there yet with this storm track, regardless of model.

The reason I bring up Hurricane Dorian is not because it will directly affect us over the weekend. But there will be indirect effects.

My experience with weather over many years has led me to notice that a strong tropical system in the western Atlantic seems to bring havoc to model forecast accuracy here.  I don’t know why that happens but there’s some effect. 

As a result, confidence in the model weekend forecast is somewhat lower than usual.

Already, a weekend that had been looking quite beautiful just a few days ago is now looking to have significant high, thin cloudiness, especially on Sunday and Monday.

Saturday appears to be the nicest day, especially from Philadelphia south and east.

Some scattered showers are possible on Sunday.   The humidity might be higher than currently forecast.

I’ll take a better stab at the forecast on Friday.   Expect changes in the forecast this weekend.

[su_note note_color=”#d9f2da”]Friday 8 AM update: The front has slowed. Clouds had been expected for much of Friday, but it appears that areas of showers may linger into the afternoon in some areas. This had not been forecast.

It suggests the models don’t have a good handle on the forecast for the weekend. I’ll update this evening. [/su_note]

A cold front will move through tonight (Thursday) and a line of showers and thunderstorms is predicted by most models between 9PM and midnight. Some of the thunderstorms will have heavy rain Thursday night and 2-3 inches of rain are possible in the immediate PHL area.   Areas west and north of Philadelphia are showing high shear values, so some thunderstorms will likely be severe.

High pressure builds in for Friday and the weekend. Unfortunately this high pressure center will remain to our north and an easterly or northeasterly flow of air may bring some damp conditions to the Jersey shore on Sunday, according to the latest NAM. 

Most of the area will have sunny skies, but periods of some fair weather cumulus clouds are possible as well. A delightful weekend is forecast weather-wise.

High temps Saturday 77, and Sunday 76 with low humidity.

[su_note note_color=”#d9f2da”]The easterly wind flow needs to be watched.  This sometimes results in more cloudiness than the models predict this time of year.  Sunday may have more cloudiness than currently forecast.[/su_note]