from earlier Tues morning:
Tuesday has been in the crosshairs for severe weather for several days. The bullseye for the severe weather had been the immediate Philadelphia area, but the latest models show that the most extreme aspects looks to occur to the south of us, near the Washington DC area.
That said, there are plenty of ingredients that are poised to come together in our area.
A warm front will pass through Tuesday morning, possibly causing showers and thunderstorms before daybreak with another possibility around noon. A cold front associated with a low pressure system moves through during the late afternoon and early evening hours.
Thunderstorms with heavy rain and high winds are possible both during the afternoon and early evening. Some of the severe weather parameters (helicity, vertical shear) are highly elevated giving us a risk of high winds and slight risk of tornados. Luckily, we may not have that much sunshine, limiting the available energy and reducing the potential for very extreme weather.
The models are still evolving and have changed their forecast considerably over the past 24 hours. The NWS does a great job with these events and it’s suggested to stay tuned to their forecasts.