[su_box title=”Saturday Update 9 AM” box_color=”#defcdc” title_color=”#000000″]While the GFS LAMPS maintains high chance of rain arriving by 12-2 PM, the recent runs of the NBM show a slightly later arrival of the rain: 1-3 PM. A small change.[/su_box]
Cold high pressure move off to the east. A disturbance approaching from the southwest will bring rain and milder temperatures on Saturday,
Saturday will start cloudy and temperatures will rise from below freezing into the low 40s by 1PM. Arriving with the milder temperatures will be rain. The rain may arrive as early as 12-2 PM. The rain will become heavy late afternoon into the evening. Temperatures continue to rise into the 40s.
The low pressure system that brought us the rain will be gone before daybreak Sunday. Sunday will be partly sunny and a bit warmer than average for this time of year. High 52. (Average high about 50).
Outlook: Rainy on Monday and another outbreak of cold air expected by Tuesday, although not as cold as we’ve had the past few days.
[su_box title=”Monday Update 10:30pm” box_color=”#defcdc” title_color=”#000000″]Tonight’s NBM model is showing a high temperature on Thanksgiving Day of 28 for Philadelphia![/su_box]
A dip in the jet stream is predicted for the coming week, with the coldest temperatures forecast for Wednesday night through Thursday night.
GFS Model Forecast for Thursday, (Thanksgiving) afternoon.
The extended range GFS and NBM (National Blend of Models) shows a high of about 32 for Philadelphia on Thursday! Actually, that’s an improvement; the forecast dip was even more amplified just a few days ago.
A warm up and rain is expected next Sunday or Monday, then a return to colder conditions sometime during the following week.
[su_note note_color=”#d9f2da”]I continue to feel we will have a colder than average winter due to the nadir in the sunspot cycle and a stormier winter as well, with plenty of moisture available in the southern jet stream from a developing El Niño in the Pacific.
