I hope my forecasts here have been useful. I’m not sure why the radio and TV were still hyping this storm this morning. Must be “alternate facts” syndrome.
Here are the snow storm totals from the NWS .
Monthly Archives: February 2017
Winter Weather Update 6:45 AM Thursday
It looks like the “3, maybe 4” inch forecast will be about right, with it more likely just making 3 inches in Philadelphia and the immediate surrounding suburbs. (Remaining QPF values according to the GFS is 0.18 inches water.)
I don’t know why the TV people kept pushing the 4-8 inches last night. I think they had dug themselves into a “snow event” to raise their ratings as they often do.
Expect cold temperatures today and freezing of what fell. Sun angles are getting higher and melting with sunshine this afternoon is possible despite the cold air temperatures.
Philly Snow Update
As I’ve been saying for several days, the final forecast can’t be made until Wednesday night’s data comes in. And latest NAM model data has just become available.
In conjunction with my previous post this evening regarding warm surface temperatures as an impediment to high snow accumulation, the latest NAM data suggests that much of the QPF will occur before surface temperatures in the immediate PHL area drop to freezing.
The NAM has 0.59 inches water falling before 7AM, but much of that will be rain, snow mixed with rain, and finally snow about 7AM. The NAM has reduced the QPF to only 0.20 inches water after 7AM.
So I’m going to go against the TV forecasts and predict only 3-4 inches of heavy wet snow for the immediate PHL area, ending about 10 AM.
I might be wrong about this forecast, but you’re reading this blog to get the real scoop without the hype. While everyone gets all excited about a big storm, I simply can’t ignore the warm surface temperatures with this one.
10:30 PM Update: Latest GFS supports the forecast of only 3, maybe 4, inches of heavy snow accumulation in the immediate Philadelphia area. The GFS has only 0.18 inches QPF falling after 7AM. It’s looking like most of the precipitation occurs before the cold air moves in.
I don’t think the snow will be very heavy after daybreak.