WINTER WEATHER UPDATE

Last Updated

Late Afternoon Update
The NAM is still showing 0.17 inches water for snow tonight. (1-2 inches snow.) The GFS is maintaining much less QPF – 0.08 inches and the statistical models and NBM seem to side on the lower amounts of (0.5 to 1 inch of snow.)

Of interest is that the NAM and to some extent, the GFS has some light snow into Monday morning and again late afternoon Monday.

Later Monday-  Temperatures will fall below freezing early evening Monday and snow will develop and become moderate for some hours during the night.  It appears that temperatures at critical levels will rise above freezing about 6AM Tuesday, BUT temperatures at the surface may remain freezing for well into the morning. After a few inches of snow, significant sleet and freezing rain is a possibility for Tuesday morning until about noon. I’ll update this evening.

from earlier this morning:

Morning Update with GFS Data
This morning’s GFS maintains a low QPF of about 0.10 inches for the general Philadelphia area, more further south into Delaware. It also has the snow starting later than the NAM, after midnight tonight. So we’re down to 1 or 1.5 inches of snow.

The blocking effect of greater colder air with the GFS suggests that the icing potential from cold air damming might be considerable on Tuesday.   I’ll keep an eye.   And I’ll update with this evening’s NAM  about 9:15 PM, when the early data becomes available.

from earlier Sunday morning...

With such large QPF differences last night between the NAM and GFS, something had to give.  This morning’s NAM model run just becoming available shows a decrease in the NAM QPF to 0.17 inches water.  This is still double the GFS, but more of a reasonable discrepancy.  So we’re back to about 1.5 to 2 inches of snow at daybreak Monday morning.

For today–  While it’s sunny right now, clouds should increase about noontime and thicken during the afternoon.  Light snow starts about 9 PM in the western suburbs and ends about daybreak Monday.

The National Blend of Models (NBM), based on some warming in the upper atmosphere is suggesting that the final precip Monday morning may include some sleet or freezing rain.  There’s also the chance of some spits of precipitation during the day on Monday.

For late Monday afternoon and early evening, snow is expected to redevelop with several inches fallling before a transition to sleet and freezing rain before daybreak Tuesday. An extended period of freezing rain, especially north and west of Philadelphia appears likely Tuesday morning.

Let’s see how well the models do with tonight’s light snow before tackling the Monday into Tuesday mix.