Sat 04:50 PM Update — Looking over more advanced models than the NAM and NAM-NEST, the consensus is that it will be too warm for freezing rain in the immediate Philadelphia area tomorrow morning, nor is precipitation expected to change back to snow before ending Sunday evening. (Areas north of Allentown may see some snow.)   Rain will start 7-9 AM Sunday morning and will end in the evening.  (The new GFS v 16 still shows a chance of snow as the precip starts at 7 AM, then a quick change to rain.  See second graphic.  Possibly a ‘cold bias’.   We’ll find out.)

 

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Our area saw rain today, on schedule between 12- 3 PM, although some areas far to the west and north had a wintry mix, as temperatures remained below freezing. The mix did not occur as close to PHL as forecast.    Here’s the surface temperatures at 3 PM today—

For the weekend—

Saturday,  a strong flow of relatively mild air moves in.  Original forecasts showed significant sunshine for Saturday, but the latest GFS suggests considerable cloudiness, a period of sun mid to late morning, then  a mix of clouds and sun at times in the afternoon.  There’s high uncertainty about the cloud cover Saturday, as captured in this NBM graphic—

With more clouds forecast, the high temperature looks to be 51.4º (NBM) and 49º (GFS) (Seasonal average high is 40º)

For Sunday, a secondary low forms off of Virginia. Precipitation moves in between 7 and 9 AM, starting as light snow or a rain mix. Changes to rain for most of the immediate PHL area. A change back to light snow is possible Sunday evening, with a coating at most.

(It appears that the new GFS may have a cold bias and the snow totals posted yesterday are incorrect and over-done.)

Any other winter, we’d have snow, but a lack of cold air to our north will keep it mostly rain.