I’m always looking to find the best way to offer the most transparency to the process of weather forecasting. Recent feedback suggests that my attempts to show all updates/edits may have made the forecasts too confusing.
Going forward, I’m inclined to have any update to the initial post contained in a single update box; previous updates will be deleted. But let’s hear what YOUR preferences are.
Updated on Fri 8:50 AM in the green box below
Updated on Thu 7:50 PM in the box below
Updated on Thu 8:35 AM in the box below
The coming weekend will be a transitional time for the current weather pattern.
The current highly amplified jet flow trough that’s giving us such cool weather will transition by Sunday to a more typically hot summer upper air ridge with a Bermuda high as shown below—
The current GFS and NBM show
sunny skies with a slight chance of a shower Saturday late afternoon or evening, followed by sunny, hot and humid weather for Sunday.
Updated on Fri 8:47 AM The general forecast trend is for more clouds on Saturday, but most models are keeping any showers mostly southeast of Philadelphia area until evening hours.
Sunday will feature an upper air low centered over Philadelphia and a surface low off of the coast. The models are keeping the showers far east right now with a mix of sun and clouds on Sunday.
Both days will feature hot and humid weather, but not as hot and humid as previously forecast. Temps 88-90 with dew points in the low to mid 60s.
Check back for the Weekend Weather forecast this evening.
Thu 07:49 PM Update — What had appeared to be a slam-dunk weekend forecast now appears much cloudier, both literally and figuratively. This afternoon’s GFS model suggests an upper low lingers over the area on Sunday, with clouds and showers. Too soon to trust the GFS, since it’s an outlier with the other models. We’ll have a better handle Friday morning. Don’t be surprised if the forecast for the weekend changes considerably.
Thu 08:48 AM Update — Last night’s models have more clouds Saturday ahead of a warm front
and a somewhat increased chance of showers/thunderstorms in the evening. High temperatures in the upper 80s.
The high temps will be in the upper 80s Saturday and just above 90º for Sunday.
Currently, the longer range models show all of next week to be very hot, humid and rain-free with high temps in the low 90s and dewpoints in the uncomfortable 70º range. With the exception of a widely scattered or isolated thunderstorm, much of the upcoming week looks to be dry.