Philadelphia Area Weather Forecasts

WEEKEND FORECAST

Friday’s upper air disturbances set off showers and even wet snow flurries. While captured by this morning’s models, this wasn’t forecast by last night’s models.

For the weekend…

For Saturday, high pressure builds in as low pressure departs to our east.  Winds will subside, but it will still be breezy. Sunshine expected for all of Saturday.  High temps: 54-56º.

For Sunday— Some uncertainty has cropped into Sunday’s forecast. Originally, it was expected to be sunny and very mild.  However, deep low pressure is intensifying in the Midwest and a return flow of warm air ahead of it will create a warm frontal type passage to our area.

SREF Sunday

Most models have us dry with increasing clouds during the day Sunday,

However this afternoon’s high resolution NAM NEST has showers breaking out to our west and moving in during the day—

NAM NEST Sunday precip and cloud forecast 9 AM  (Click on image for larger view)

Most models (GFS, GEFS, SREF, ICON, CMC-GDPS) are not on-board with this, but the NAM NEST is the only high resolution model to extend 60 hours into Sunday right now.

The model consensus is forhigh temps on Sunday to be 67-71º    The more pessimistic NAM NEST has highs in the upper 50s.

So I’m thinking that the drier forecast is most likely for Sunday, but the NAM NEST shouldn’t be ignored.  I’ll update over the weekend.

A very intense storm will affect us on Monday—

GEFS Monday 11 AM forecast showing rain.  (click on image for larger view.

Monday will have heavy rain. Extremely high winds are possible on Monday (GFS has gusts of 60 + mph) along with rainfall of about 1.5 inches.

Yet another storm and colder weather for Wednesday (in early March this setup might be a snow storm.)

So an active period setting up.