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Monday Evening Storm Update
Posted Monday 03/31/25 @ 4:42 PM — No significant change from previous forecast update. Here’s the near-current water vapor/radar—
Here’s the latest HRRR forecast at 8 PM—
Monday Evening Possible Severe Weather
Posted Monday 03/31/25 @ 9:05 AM — A strong cold front approaches today and is expected to move through the Philadelphia area about 10 PM. Ahead of the front, unstable conditions will allow for the possibility of severe thunderstorms ahead of the front. The most likely timing is between 6 PM and 9 PM with a peak at 7-8 PM according to the latest HRRR.
As for the Phillies opening game at 3 PM, most models keep any storms to the western suburbs, but the latest HRRR does show some possible activity closer to the city at 5 PM—
As mentioned, there’s the potential for severe weather, especially this evening. The HRRR shows areas of highly elevated severe weather parameters (vertical shear, helicity and upward helicity) approaching the city about 7 PM—
It should be noted that a high shear and helicity forecast at 8 PM shows possible low tornadic potential—
As always, the model placement for the potential severe weather is rarely exactly where it will occur. (It’s only a model.) But the potential and general timing is what’s important.
Stay tuned. I’ll update later this afternoon.