Yesterday, the short range models did well; the NAM over-stated the chance of showers.    In the immediate PHL area, there were a few widely scattered thunderstorms, mostly far north and west.

Despite strong lifted indexes, vertical velocities and even some low level convergence, the atmosphere was “capped” with hot air  aloft, basically negating any instability in the lower levels.

Today, the chance of thunderstorms is on par with the usual 30 percent background level seen in hot humid air masses.

The HRRR shows a weakening line of shower and thunderstorms moving through between 5 and 7 PM.  Not sure if this will hold together.

The models keep the temps in the low-mid 90s with dew points in the low to mid 70s.