The changeover to sleet, freezing rain and rain has occurred in PHL and the immediate surrounding suburbs and this precipitation type will continue fairly heavy until about 1-2 PM today. What you see is what you’ll get….If you haven’t received heavy snow, you’re not going to.
Winds will pick up with temperatures at or below freezing early, but rising during the morning. Slippery conditions still exist, but roadways may be less impacted than usual with solar insolation through clouds reducing icing on dark asphalt as we approach noontime. A brief changeover to snow at the end of the storm won’t add much accumulation.
When the TV people try to explain what happened to their 10-12 inch forecasts from last night, don’t believe them. The “track of the storm” didn’t change. They simply didn’t interpret the data properly.
You nailed it again, Glenn! Love your forecasts!
Thanks, John, for the acknowledgement! I knew I was taking a chance with my forecast last night, but I had to go with what I knew was right. I was reluctant to even forecast the 4-5 inches, but I felt I was already out on a limb. This issue with upper level warming is what destroyed John Bolaris’s reputation back in 1999 or 2000.
For the record,
I am also a dentist 🤣
Hi John, Welcome to the blog. I won’t hold it against you that you’re a fellow dentist. 🙂
I’m not one for news on TV but when NWS puts out a blizzard warning with 18-24″ forecast <24 hours before the storm and -in Lansdale at least- we get maybe an inch or two that's rough. Certainly don't want a lot of traffic in this but still.
Thanks for sharing your look at the data. Without an idea of what you're looking at those graphics like 1000, 500, etc mb thickness are difficult to interpret.
Hi, I don’t look at the graphics for my forecasts. When it comes to snowfall and precipitation type, I look at raw text data and extracted model text data. It’s taken me years to learn how to interpret these things.
I have to say you nail it almost every time. I tell all the guys in the electricians Union and all my friends and family to use your forecast everytime bad weather is coming. What I don’t understand is why didn’t the network weather forecast back off the high snow totals latr last night. I’m sure there were plenty of meteroligist that work for the big stations that were seeing what you saw last night. Do you think it’s a matter of pride? Like they don’t like to admit they were wrong? It seems to happen all the time.
Thanks for the acknowledgement. I wish I knew why. They certainly increase their ratings on tv.