The afternoon run of the NAM just became available.  QPF values for PHL are now over 0.5 inches water.   The critical temperatures of the upper atmosphere are now not as warm as the earlier run from PHL and westward.  Still slightly warm for dry snow—some sleet or ice pellets will mix in reducing snow totals.  Approximately 3-5 inches possible for PHL and  immediate west is the current call.

The afternoon model runs are not the best, since they don’t incorporate new radiosonde upper air data.   (That’s those weather balloons.)  Will have a better handle on snow totals with the evening runs.   Will update by about 9:30 PM tonight.