Philly Winter Weather Update

Last Updated

The 1 AM model runs continue with these trends.  The NAM, as it always does, has more QPF as snow than the GFS.  The GFS is looking  relatively meager, with less than 0.40 inches water falling as snow.  The NAM is a bit more robust with 0..55  falling as snow.   The snow ends mid to late afternoon Thursday.

(There is more QPF prior to 7AM Thursday, but some of the thermal parameters don’t support much snow in PHL, just sleet.)

So the trend right now is for maybe less QPF, less snowfall.   The temperatures are also looking a bit lower, suggesting the front may stall a bit futher south, putting us in the northern edge area of the precip max.  The advertised 4-8 inches still sounds quite reasonable, but this will be tough to get right  for a specific location and in the range of locations in the Philly suburbs.

Here are the unknown parameters that make this forecast complex:

Rate of frontal movement after passing through Philly.  Slower-> more QPF, not as cold initially, more sleet, less snow.
Final stalled  frontal position, Further south –> colder  –> greater QPF:snowfall ratio
Final stalled frontal position, Further south-> less QPF
Final stalled frontal positiion, Further north –> warmer, smaller QPF:snowfall ratio, more QPF

I’ll update early this evening.