Big differences today between the GFS model and the NAM model. The latest NAM cranks out 3-5 inches of snow for PHL.
The GFS has cranked out much less snow in the afternoon run, just a coating.
UPDATE: tonight’s GFS has 1-2 inches of snow for PHL.
This clipper could surprise in either direction, most likely in the lower accumulation range. Both models start the snow after 1PM and taper to flurries about 7 PM.
After unapologetically blowing the Sunday morning ice forecast, the Philly TV forecasters are now hyping up the “snow event” for this Wednesday.
The latest models have 0.06 inches of water falling as snow on Wednesday afternoon. That amount can be random noise in the models, flurries or a light coating of snow. Hardly a ‘snow event’.
I think we all blew the forecast for this morning’s freezing rain. Nobody predicted the that the rain would get into the area before surface temperatures rose above freezing. The models had temperatures rising during the night.
That said, I think we all fell asleep at the wheel on this forecast. There was no thought of “cold air damming” (the tendency of cold air to linger longer close to the surface during a warmup, something the models aren’t good at.) There was also no thought to the fact that ground temperatures were well below freezing for an extended time.
This is a part-time hobby for me. I didn’t catch this one and I’m sorry. I drank the official forecast discussion cool-aid and I didn’t critically think about the temperatures this morning.
But if I were a full-time professional meteorologist, I would be hanging my head down today. I’m wondering if any of the TV “meteorologists” will own up to their very poor forecast? It is their job to predict ice storms like this. Gee, there’s been deaths, road closures and hundreds of accidents. Maybe a little humility and apology would be appropriate?? I bet you won’t see a single acknowledgement of this poor forecast.