Philly Weekend Weather Outlook

The very mild weather that will be with us through Friday will come to  brief end later Friday as a cold front moves through.

As in recent months, the cold front precipitation dynamics move to our north as a wave develops on the front to our south.  That gives us a windy day, but low rain probability to the frontal passage late Friday.

The current dry pattern seems deeply entrenched for our area.  Indeed, the upper air pattern that has been with us since August is a marked departure from the pattern of the past two years.  It suggests a much milder winter and possibly a much drier winter.  More about that in a upcoming post regarding my Winter Weather Outlook.

Back to this weekend…the wave of low pressure may bring cloudiness to our area on Saturday, but it appears that the rain will stoy just to our south, affecting southern NJ and DE.

For Sunday, cooler high pressure builds in for sunny and seasonably cool weather.

I’ll update on Friday.

 

Weather Models not doing well

Over the past two weeks, the NAM and GFS models have been doing particularly poorly.  There have been large errors predicting cloud cover last weekend and yesterday.

Today, there are light showers in the area this morning and the NAM failed to show this except for the last night’s late model run.   The GFS had us dry through the weekend.   Even the short range model, the GFS LAMP, last night had us dry this morning.

From the models, it doesn’t look like we’ll have much sunshine later today (as previously expected).   Hey, but maybe we will (?)

 

Weather… and Other Things 'Up in the Air'