Interesting Weather Forecast

There are many past winter storms where there have been large differences between the GFS and NAM models regarding QPF (amount of precip).

By definition ( if not by other measures) tomorrow’s rain is not a winter storm, but the models differ significantly with the amount of precipitation forecast.  The NAM has been advertising 2 inches of rain for PHL, while the GFS has a light rain, less than 0.50 inches total.  That’s a giant difference.

When dealing with snowfall, the differences are obvious when a heavy precip forecast goes bust.   It will be interesting to see if the NAM or the GFS model verifies tomorrow.   Something to consider for later in the season when we likely see divergence in forecasts.

 

 

 

Saturday Weather Update

The  dry GFS forecast for today doesn’t fully jive with the current radar trends.  The 1 AM run of the NAM model shows some very light showers for PHL this morning.  (Total precip 0.03 inches water.)  Temperatures this morning are higher than forecast.

Apparently, the stalled front hasn’t move as far east and south as originally expected.

As mentioned earlier this week, the models have not been doing well with cloud cover and precip forecasts with the current weather pattern  over the past several weeks.

Philly Weekend Weather Forecast

A cold front moved through and stalled just east and south of our area.  A wave of low pressure developing along the front will cause showers to develop mostly east and south of Philadelphia on Friday night and Saturday.

Philadelphia should be dry Saturday but there’s a slight chance of a scattered sprinkle. It will be mostly cloudy with November-like mid level cloudiness. Cooler with high temperature 62.

High pressure builds in for Sunday. Sunny skies and cooler temps.  High 59.

Weather… and Other Things 'Up in the Air'