Latest models keep us dry today, Saturday. Any thunderstorms should be to our west and north.
Both the NAM and GFS show showers and rain moving in late afternoon Sunday. Heaviest rain on Monday may be in NJ, according to the NAM.
Philly Memorial Day Weekend Forecast
As mentioned in my “Outlook” post a few days ago, the models were maintaining a nose of high pressure that seemed to block shower activity from reaching our area. However, the trend was for this high pressure blocking to be decreasing. Such is the case today, as high pressure is now expected to retreat eastward, allowing showers to move in as early as Sunday afternoon.
For Saturday, mostly sunny and hot, with a slight chance of a scattered thundershower later in the afternoon. High 89
Significant moisture from a semitropical system off the southeast coast will move in on Sunday giving us an increasing chance of showers in the afternoon. Sunshine in the morning with clouds, showers and thunderstorms likely during the afternoon. High 82 and much more humid.
Monday looks to be cloudy with rain, possibly heavy. Warm and quite humid. High 78
Note- The forecast has changed considerably over the past two days. The effects of a tropical system will throw another monkey wrench into this current forecast. Expect further changes.
Philly Memorial Day Weekend Weather Outlook
Warm, spring-like weather has been conspicuously absent for much of May. However, a late spring and more summer-like pattern is evolving in the Atlantic, where a Bermuda high pattern is expected to establish itself over the next few days into the weekend.
Warmer temperatures and higher humidity is expected for Memorial Day Weekend. It is unknown whether the Bermuda high will be strong enough to fend off showers and thunderstorms that are depicted to develop to our west, south and north.
Right now, the GFS model is keeping us dry through the weekend, from Saturday through Monday. But the model trend has been for a weakening of the high pressure dome which may allow showers to sneak in if the trend continues.
So it looks to be a nice weekend here in Philly and at the NJ shore, but it wouldn’t take much for that forecast to go bust.