Philly Snow Update

This morning’s NAM and GFS data is available.  The GFS has a QPF of 0.21 inches water and the NAM  0.32.   Taking the average, we’ll say that 0.25 QPF is approximately correct.  That comes to 3, maybe 4 inches of snow in PHL and immediate areas.   Areas in southeastern NJ will have considerably more and areas to the north and west significantly less.

 

Saturday Philly Snow Update

The NAM and GFS model’s 1 AM runs have come together with a QPF of about 0.15 inches water for Philadelphia, or about 2, maybe 3 inches of snow (due to a higher snow:water ratio).

For Philadelphia, the snow starts about daybreak or so and the models have light snow continuing through about 4PM.   For 8 hours of snowfall, 2-3 inches total snowfall is very light.

It still looks like a much more significant snowfall for southeastern NJ.

While the current radar trends are consistent with last night’s models, this is still a lower than usual confidence forecast. Any late change in intensification could throw the snow totals off in either direction.

Weather… and Other Things 'Up in the Air'