Today’s forecast of snow flurries was always on the edge of not meriting a blog post. But I wanted to keep my skills honed, so it’s been the subject of my recent two posts.
I’m ready to bring this to a close. Today’s models continue with the trend of the clipper system coming through, although none of the models just available show this current radar situation at 9 AM (which could be showing precip evaporating before reaching the ground).
Current 9AM Radar Loop (courtesy of weathertap.com) (Click on image for a larger view.)
HRRR Precipitation Type forecast showing light rain sprinkles north of Philadelphia (Click on image for a larger view.)
Indeed, this morning’s models don’t show any precipitation reaching us until 12-2 PM, and being extremely light, mostly north of us, with the lowest layer of the atmosphere too warm for even snow flurries.
So, there’s a disconnect right now with current conditions and model forecasts. The non-event of possible light snow flurries could just become light rain sprinkles or just be a total non-event. Let’s see what happens.
NAM-NEST Precip type forecast 2 PM (Click on image for a larger view.)
from Monday …
We have a chance of seeing the first snowflakes of this season early Wednesday morning. A weak upper air disturbance (clipper system) will move through the Philadephia area between 6 AM and 9 AM Wednesday morning.
Snow flurries are likely but most areas will either get no accumulation, or a light coating at most. Current water equivalents are very low, about 0.03 inches.
If this sort of non-event were to occur later in the season, it might not even merit a blog posting, but being the first flakes, I thought I’d get into gear.
There are some differences in model timing with tonight’s NAM and NAM-NEST having the this occur later in the morning. Stay tuned.
