The forecast for the potential path of Hurricane Joaquin  continues to change., with the range of solutions– most have the storm  making a  turn into North Carolina , then making a sharp turn over land towards the Delaware Valley, affecting us as a tropical storm.

A few models have a track directly to the Chesapeake Bay area.   The fewest number of models have the storm bending east out to sea.

Timing and intensity has also changed, with the actual storm or remenants reaching our area  in the Monday to Tuesday time frame.  Some models have the intensity as a Category 3 storm before landfall, while a few now have it as an early Category 4 hurricane.

My favorite model for tropical sytems, the Navy NAVGEMS, has the storm entering South Carolina Sunday and weakened remnants making it north to our area.   This model differs signficantly from the official NHC track which now takes the hurricane directly up near Delaware/NJ coasts.

The GFS has moved to very northward movement missing us and hitting southern New England.   So predicted tracks are really all over the place.

Regardless of the final intensity and location, many models have the moisture ouflow of the storm being picked up by upper winds and converging on the stalled frontal boundary just to our south, resulting in heavy rains unrelated to the actual storm location during the weekend.

So this is still a difficult impossible forecast to nail down.   Will update this evening.