I thought it was going to rain? Me too! So what’s with the forecast?
Last night’s NAM data (which comes out later, between 10 and 11 PM due to daylight savings time), showed some changes with the forecast and I tried to patch my forecast with a quick update at 11 PM. I failed to fully examine the changed humidity fields— which showed this sunshine for the morning hours today.
So the models continue with some sun and essentially dry conditions for this morning . Things change after 12PM today, as low pressure develops to our south and things become more unstable. Scattered thunderstorms can form almost any time after 12 PM today and the probability increases considerably during the late afternoon.
Like last Saturday, these storms will not move in as a line, but will develop in place and be slow movers. Most areas will have had showers and thunderstorms by 6 pm, although the areal coverage won’t be large at any one time.
The chance of showers persists into the evening.
Even when it’s not a big snowstorm this is interesting stuff and well written. Thanks weatherguy.
Thanks for the compliment. Even with the updated forecast, I don’t think either the GFS nor the NAM model correctly depicted the areal coverage of the precipitation for today. The cloud cover was much less. Much more sunshine than I had predicted.
The short range HRRR did the best. The current radar at 4:30 pm looks fairly similar to the HRRR simulated radar prediction from this morning.