As mentioned in a previous forecast, with an upper closed low, the models rarely accurately predict the placement of the heavy rains and such was the case yesterday.  In fact, all of the models over-predicted rainfall, including the EMCWF (European).    Most areas in PHL and immediate surrounding areas only had 0.75 to 1 inch of rain.  The heaviest rain was in Maryland and near Baltimore.

(When it snows, everyone knows when the forecast QPF isn’t correct; when it rains, fewer people realize it.)

For today, Sunday, the NAM has some hazy sunshine breaking out by  morning or early afternoon. But it also shows high instability in the early afternoon with showers as early as 2 PM. The chance of showers continues thorough the evening.   These will be random and scattered.

The GFS LAMPS has increased chance of showers and thundershowers in the late afternoon.  The experimental NBM (National Blend of Models) has a high chance of showers and some embedded thundershowers during  late afternoon (4 PM) and evening, as does the EMCWF.

So, not a washout, but unsettled, with showers especially likely after 4 PM into the evening.