The latest models maintain an off-shore track of the storm Wednesday night into Thursday.   A slight westward trend that existed a few days ago has become almost imperceptible.

With the track of the storm remaining mostly unchanged, the difference in the forecast depends on the size of the precipitation shield around the storm with the some models having a large enough shield of precipitation to affect south Jersey and somewhat reaching PHL and its immediate suburbs.  Other models, notably the NAM, have kept the precipitation shunted to our east.

The new experimental National Blend of Models maintains a 52% chance of snow with an accumulation of about 1.5 inches in PHL, more south and east in NJ.  Some of the other new statistical models also show a near 50% chance with overall amounts in the 1-2 inch range.

So right now, a minor storm for PHL, somewhat greater for Atlantic City and Cape May and northern New England.   Things have a way of changing, but right now, the actual track, off-shore, is unusually consistent and doesn’t show the variability of past coastal storms.  Stay tuned.

Yet another storm to keep an eye on.   All models have been showing a coastal storm to develop and move up the western Atlantic.

Most models have this storm far enough off-shore with the precipitation shield barely touching NJ and eastern PA.

That said, the ECMWF  (European) has shifted slightly westward with the storm track and it has been the trend with recent storms for the track to become more westward in time.

The latest statistical models have increased the chances of some snow in our area Wednesday night into Thursday.   Too soon to be sure and certainly too soon to predict amounts.   Hopefully the models will do better with the QPF values this time.