A quick update. Too early to really call this but the latest GFS model has (at least) 12-15 inches of snow starting some time after noon Friday and lasting into Saturday night. Expect changes with this forecast.
Tues 7 PM update: Snow starts between noon and 5 PM Friday. Looks more like only snow and less chance of a mix for Philadelphia and north and west. It may end earlier- early Saturday evening instead of lingering. That’s the current picture.
A quick update. Latest GFS model just available shows a major snowstorm possible late Friday through Saturday. I first mentioned this possibility last Saturday.
Again, there have been several storms that were incorrectly modeled for our area this season, but this one is looking like you’ll need your snowblower working. Still too far off in the future to be certain, but all the ingredients seem to be lining up.
I’ll update tomorrow.
Tues 8 AM update: The snow arrives earlier, about noon on Friday. May mix with rain in NJ before a change back to snow. Looking increasingly likely
I look at the weather models almost daily, and this winter has been difficult for the weather models beyond five days. The run to run consistency, especially with storm tracks just hasn’t been there in the medium and long range.
That said, it looks like a close call for this Tuesday, where a coastal low will just miss us. Each consecutive model run has moved the storm closer to the coast but still has it missing our area at the current time.
Of greater interest is a coastal low-pressure system that is expected to move up the coast on Saturday. This has the potential of bringing our first snowfall for the season . We will have to keep an eye on this since, lIke so many storms this winter, it may disappear from the forecast maps in a day or two.